What a privilege it truly is to be friends with someone like The Great Tommy. For a ton of reasons. Most beneficial to me is his honesty. It’s super helpful to have someone around to tell you that you’re an idiot when you’re being an idiot. After watching the Colts dismantle the Houston Texans, I believed they became a legit Super Bowl contender in a wide open AFC. So did the boys in Vegas. After settling in at 50-1 on December 18th at the Westgate SuperBook, they were down to 28/1 before the playoffs started. With a win on Sunday it dropped to 14/1 in most places and I jumped in. Small value victory too since it’s now 12/1 pretty much everywhere. Feeling pretty good about myself, I text my homie TGT the screen shot below. He immediately told me I fucked up. Not because the Colts didn’t have a shot to win the Super Bowl, but I missed out on an easy alternative bet that would have doubled the odds in my favor.
There’s my bet. $100 to win $1,400. The Great Tommy’s problem wasn’t the Colts as a team. He thinks they’re a big game from Malik Hooker away from having the entire NFL worried. His problem is with how I bet the Colts winning it all. His answer? Bet the Colts money line every week and your odds double. And he’s 100% right. The Colts will likely be a dog in any scenario for the remainder of the playoffs. Right now they are +200 on the money line at Kansas City on Saturday. So my initial $100 bet should not have been 14/1 on the Colts to win the Super Bowl. It should have been $100 on the money line against the Chiefs. At +200, my $100 turns into $300 if the Colts win on Saturday. Even if they defeat KC, Indianapolis will continue to be underdogs on the road. Traveling to either New England or San Diego and playing a Hall of Fame quarterback won’t be easy. No matter the opponent, TGT thinks the Colts will be a minimum four point underdog. The money line price on that is generally about +180. So take the $300 I had after winning the Kansas City bet and roll it into the Colts on the money line in the AFC Championship game. If the Colts win again, my $300 would turn into $840 total ($300 bet + $540 win). Now with Indianapolis in the Super Bowl, they will most likely play either the Saints or Rams and be a six point underdog. For a game as big as the Super Bowl, my money line odds would be around +200. If I wagered the $840 on Colts money line at +200, I would win $1,680 for a total $2,520 back in my pocket after making an initial $100 bet. So with a belief the Indianapolis Colts have a shot to win the Super Bowl in 2019, my true odds are more like 24/1 if I bet the money line each week instead of making a futures bet.
So let’s recap. If you like the Colts winning the Super Bowl and you took them at 14/1, it was a HUGE mistake. Buying them today at 12/1 is even worse. Only the crazy asshole who threw money on Indianapolis at 50-1 on December 18th is sitting back feeling good about his bet. So listen to The Great Tommy. Don’t make the stupid impulse wager I made to win $1,300. Bet the Colts money line week to week and you’ll end up with the best odds available on Indianapolis becoming the 2019 Super Bowl Champions.