The Great Tommy is not the guy in the big house. He’s not the guy showing up at The Venetian with $250,000 in a Hermès travel bag an hour before kick-off. TGT is a normal working stiff who loves a little action. That means he’s doesn’t sit on his throne all day and watch his minions toil, my man is out there with the people. So when a 20-year-old professional dishwasher gave him gambling advice, he didn’t laugh in his face. He imagined what the NFL’s version of Bizarro World would look like and what happens if every underdog wins on the money line.
In Las Vegas it’s acceptable to be a known gambler. Co-workers talk about bets they made all the time. Yesterday a dishwasher says, “Tommy! Take every underdog on the money line this weekend!” Now, this is coming from a young kid named D who I love to death. Hard worker. Always on time. But he doesn’t know SHIT about sports betting. Or does he? My first thought was “This guy is fucking nuts” and to be honest he probably is, but I’m a sick bastard who loves action. So my next thought was “What are my odds on that actually happening?” Occasionally I like throwing in wild parlays. Mostly for the opportunity to make some money but partly for the fun of it. The thrill of winning a small straight bet on the Colts today doesn’t do it for me, unless I’m already committed to rolling that money over into next week. I was clocked in when that 20-year-old dishwasher betrothed me with his wisdom, but I had to see what my odds were on every underdog winning outright. So like a real pro I dipped into the walk-in cooler for a few and checked out my odds. Did not expect to see what I did. They were well over 100-1. If you bet a $40 parlay on all the underdogs money line this weekend, it pays out over $4,800. Feeling even more ballsy? $100 on the same bet gets you $12,000. It’s nice to find a little jackpot in the sports betting world now and again. Hit a few of these and you can start taking some real chances. Let’s look at each game to talk strategy and see just how far fetched this all is.
Indianapolis Colts +200
My stance on the Colts is well documented. So what happens if the Colts lose? I’m out $40. Big deal. Remember, this is a lottery ticket. Your odds on this are way better than buying two $20 scratch-offs. With that said, it’s a lottery ticket which needs many factors to fall into place, but has a “probable” outcome with minimal risk to you as a gambler.
Dallas Cowboys +270
Not going to speak on the actual game here, but about my bet and how to maximize value. Let’s say at half time the Cowboys are looking good and the 2nd half line for the Rams drops to -180? I’m going to lay down $72 to win my $40 back. Why? Let’s assume Dallas pulls off the upset and my parlay is still alive. I’m now at risk for $112. To win almost $5,000. I’m still OK with 50-1 odds and two games to go. If the Cowboys lose, I get my $40 back and do no harm to my bankroll.
Onto Sundays games:
If the first two legs of this parlay hit, I will do one of two things:
A) Bet $380 on the Patriots at -190 to win $200. If the Pats win and break my parlay up, I still profit $88 for the weekend. Not a big pay day but money is money and I just made some sitting on my couch eating Cheetos.
B) Have balls of steel and don’t bet a nickle on the Patriots until they go to plus money at halftime. Maybe. Most likely I’ll wait this out and go heavy on the last game.
This is the hardest upset for me to believe is going to happen and I’m glad it’s the last game of the weekend. If I’m 3-3 heading into this, $5,000 is on the line. What does a veteran like me do here? He could lay down $2,000 on the Saints -380 to win back $500 before kick-off. My move would be wait it out until halftime and see how the game goes. You might get New Orleans -200 in the second half and win back $1,000 instead of $500. If the Eagles upset the world, I still won $3,000. If the Saints do what they’re supposed to do, I end up profiting at least $400 this weekend betting on the NFL. It’s feels great to be in that position. You get to actual enjoy the football game with a non-bias view knowing you’re going to win some cash no matter the outcome.
So yes this is a crazy bet. Even more so if you don’t have $2,000 sitting around to fade yourself with on Sunday, but it’s a FUN bet. That’s what we’re supposed to be doing right? Having fun with this shit and giving ourselves some weekend action to get the blood flowing.
Have a winning day ya’ll,
— The Eye Test (@theyetest) January 12, 2019